Q.
A. Warning! If you have a below-average IQ, do NOT read the details below! It will give you a terrible headache! It contains algebra that only a grammar school graduate can understand. Stop reading now!!
Economists estimate the expected GDP growth due to a stimulus with this formula:
(1)Average stimulus-induced GDP growth
= [Stimulus + Induced Consumer Spending] / Number of years
= Multiplier x Stimulus / Number of years,
where Multiplier = [Stimulus + Induced Consumer Spending] / Stimulus. (See: http://www.KeynesForum.blogspot.com .)
When economists propose a stimulus, they hope that the induced consumer spending and the GDP growth will be large. Therefore, to ask âWas the stimulus a success?â is the same as to ask âWas the GDP growth as large as expected?â or, equivalently, âWas the resulting multiplier as large as possible?â
So what was the value of the resulting multiplier? Solving equation (1) for the value of the multiplier yields:
(2)Multiplier = Average induced GDP growth x Number of years / Stimulus
To calculate the multiplier value, letâs assume that:
(a)The stimulus total was $1T, possibly a high estimate.
(b)The entire stimulus was used for infrastructure (although 40% consisted of tax breaks, as required by Republican Senator Olympia Snowe).
(c)The stimulus has been active for 2 ½ years (mid-2009 through 2011).
(d)During 2 ½ years, the GDP grew $2T (from $13T to $15T).
(e)Of the $2T GDP growth during 2 ½ years, the stimulus induced only half ($1T).
Entering these data into equation (2) yields:
Multiplier = $1T GDP growth x 2.5 years / $1T Stimulus = 2.5
For funds used for infrastructure, the Congressional Budget Office limits the multiplier value permitted in a cost-benefit analysis to 2.5. Therefore, the stimulus was as effective as it could be: a real success.
The stimulus turned a 6% GDP decline into a 3% GDP growth. The GDP has gained $1T each year for the last 2 years. The increased annual tax revenue on $1T of GDP growth is $0.3T. That's $0.3T for the first year and $0.6T for the second year - a total tax revenue increase of $0.9T for the last two years. Including the revenue in the last half year, that is the size of the stimulus. Thus, the renewed infrastructure did not increase the deficit!
ARRA paid over $110B to construction workers and $11B to scientists doing research and development crucial to our future. Much more could have been done if Republican governors had used block grants for the intended purpose. Instead of fixing school roofs, Texas Governor Perry used ARRA funds to ease budget problems caused by tax cuts for the rich.
The stimulus had to be three times larger to make up for the huge drop in consumer spending caused by the Bush Meltdown. By opposing the stimulus and by limiting the spending on infrastructure, conservatives prevented a speedy recovery, lowered tax revenue, and increased the debt problem.
Since Obama's inauguration, the deficit is due to the Bush Meltdown: plummeting tax revenue and exploding recovery costs. Our deficit, our debt, and our depression are all Republican. QED
Economists estimate the expected GDP growth due to a stimulus with this formula:
(1)Average stimulus-induced GDP growth
= [Stimulus + Induced Consumer Spending] / Number of years
= Multiplier x Stimulus / Number of years,
where Multiplier = [Stimulus + Induced Consumer Spending] / Stimulus. (See: http://www.KeynesForum.blogspot.com .)
When economists propose a stimulus, they hope that the induced consumer spending and the GDP growth will be large. Therefore, to ask âWas the stimulus a success?â is the same as to ask âWas the GDP growth as large as expected?â or, equivalently, âWas the resulting multiplier as large as possible?â
So what was the value of the resulting multiplier? Solving equation (1) for the value of the multiplier yields:
(2)Multiplier = Average induced GDP growth x Number of years / Stimulus
To calculate the multiplier value, letâs assume that:
(a)The stimulus total was $1T, possibly a high estimate.
(b)The entire stimulus was used for infrastructure (although 40% consisted of tax breaks, as required by Republican Senator Olympia Snowe).
(c)The stimulus has been active for 2 ½ years (mid-2009 through 2011).
(d)During 2 ½ years, the GDP grew $2T (from $13T to $15T).
(e)Of the $2T GDP growth during 2 ½ years, the stimulus induced only half ($1T).
Entering these data into equation (2) yields:
Multiplier = $1T GDP growth x 2.5 years / $1T Stimulus = 2.5
For funds used for infrastructure, the Congressional Budget Office limits the multiplier value permitted in a cost-benefit analysis to 2.5. Therefore, the stimulus was as effective as it could be: a real success.
The stimulus turned a 6% GDP decline into a 3% GDP growth. The GDP has gained $1T each year for the last 2 years. The increased annual tax revenue on $1T of GDP growth is $0.3T. That's $0.3T for the first year and $0.6T for the second year - a total tax revenue increase of $0.9T for the last two years. Including the revenue in the last half year, that is the size of the stimulus. Thus, the renewed infrastructure did not increase the deficit!
ARRA paid over $110B to construction workers and $11B to scientists doing research and development crucial to our future. Much more could have been done if Republican governors had used block grants for the intended purpose. Instead of fixing school roofs, Texas Governor Perry used ARRA funds to ease budget problems caused by tax cuts for the rich.
The stimulus had to be three times larger to make up for the huge drop in consumer spending caused by the Bush Meltdown. By opposing the stimulus and by limiting the spending on infrastructure, conservatives prevented a speedy recovery, lowered tax revenue, and increased the debt problem.
Since Obama's inauguration, the deficit is due to the Bush Meltdown: plummeting tax revenue and exploding recovery costs. Our deficit, our debt, and our depression are all Republican. QED
Temple Texas Computer Nerds - Data Recovery?
Q. We often freeze the hard drive that has clear mechanical failure or knocking sounds. We achieve 10 minutes of operation during data recovery. How many times can you freeze the drive before permanant damage ?
A. You can freeze it until it fails - what you are going to work with is maybe moisture building up inside the drive due to condensation. You can also put the drive on top of ice while accessing it to slow the rate of heat buildup. thereby giving you more time to access it.
Why has the recovery of the economy slowed under republican house control?
Q. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/58110.html
A. It's not in their best POLITICAL interest. Not the American peoples.
GE reported a profit of 5.1 billion but somehow got a $3.2 billion tax rebate. Not a cut but a rebate. Exxon reported record profits and it too got a rebate. 2/3 of American corporations pay no income taxes. Last year all those tax cuts and rebates cost 1.9 trillion dollars and currently business is sitting on trillions in cash. But unemployment is 10%.
Thanks to never ending tax cuts the dollar is in the toilet. A dollar U.S. used to get a $1.50 Canadian. Now it won't get a whole dollar CAD. So ALL imports costs more. Food, clothing and OIL.
Workersâ share of national income plummets to record low
http://beta.news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/workers-share-national-income-plummets-record-low-163749508.html
"The chart jibes with other data, which show that since the 1980s, income for the richest 1 percent of Americans has exploded, while hardly budging at all for everyone else."
During the Bush presidency the economy grew at it's most sluggish rate in recent history. And it still is. And no wonder. High unemployment and stagnant wages while the price of everything rises is hardly a formula for growth and job creation. And you wonder why unemployment is stuck on high. The tax cuts did nothing. So much for "Trickle down" economics.
Somehow Republicans are under the mistaken belief the unemployed and those with stagnant wages are going to run out and drive the economy with no money and higher prices. They just need more tax cuts and cheaper dollars to do it..
I came across a post on a message board that summed up America's problem:
"Americans are morons. Led by manipulative politicians they've been sold on the idea that wars are free, taxes are unnecessary to support the services you need, and that corporations have your best interests at heart if only you'd leave them to self regulate"
During the GOP debates all they spoke about were taxes and deregulation. As they bashed Obama.
Edit: for those knocking the stimulus:
Look at Jan Brewer of Arizona and Rick Perry of Texas. Both moaned about spending and knocked the stimulus even as both took the money and ran. Neither did what they were supposed to with it. Brewer took her $6.4 billion and applied it to her budget. Perry did the same thing. Meanwhile both had the audacity to say the stimulus didn't work. I wonder why? Neither returned the money.
GE reported a profit of 5.1 billion but somehow got a $3.2 billion tax rebate. Not a cut but a rebate. Exxon reported record profits and it too got a rebate. 2/3 of American corporations pay no income taxes. Last year all those tax cuts and rebates cost 1.9 trillion dollars and currently business is sitting on trillions in cash. But unemployment is 10%.
Thanks to never ending tax cuts the dollar is in the toilet. A dollar U.S. used to get a $1.50 Canadian. Now it won't get a whole dollar CAD. So ALL imports costs more. Food, clothing and OIL.
Workersâ share of national income plummets to record low
http://beta.news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/workers-share-national-income-plummets-record-low-163749508.html
"The chart jibes with other data, which show that since the 1980s, income for the richest 1 percent of Americans has exploded, while hardly budging at all for everyone else."
During the Bush presidency the economy grew at it's most sluggish rate in recent history. And it still is. And no wonder. High unemployment and stagnant wages while the price of everything rises is hardly a formula for growth and job creation. And you wonder why unemployment is stuck on high. The tax cuts did nothing. So much for "Trickle down" economics.
Somehow Republicans are under the mistaken belief the unemployed and those with stagnant wages are going to run out and drive the economy with no money and higher prices. They just need more tax cuts and cheaper dollars to do it..
I came across a post on a message board that summed up America's problem:
"Americans are morons. Led by manipulative politicians they've been sold on the idea that wars are free, taxes are unnecessary to support the services you need, and that corporations have your best interests at heart if only you'd leave them to self regulate"
During the GOP debates all they spoke about were taxes and deregulation. As they bashed Obama.
Edit: for those knocking the stimulus:
Look at Jan Brewer of Arizona and Rick Perry of Texas. Both moaned about spending and knocked the stimulus even as both took the money and ran. Neither did what they were supposed to with it. Brewer took her $6.4 billion and applied it to her budget. Perry did the same thing. Meanwhile both had the audacity to say the stimulus didn't work. I wonder why? Neither returned the money.
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